Transgender Decline and Language
Fiery comments on transgender survey data
Eric Kaufmann’s data analyses and commentary on transgender identity attracted significant attention in the US. Naturally, I paid attention since my publications here on Substack and in the book, Bridging the Chasm, focus on cultural attitudes towards LGBTQIA+ individuals.
In his most recent article in Skeptic (2025, November 7), the language in the lead heading appeared to be an over-generalization: “Transgenderism is in rapid decline among young Americans, indicating it was a social contagion.”
Kaufmann explains his data analysis and defends it against several challenges. I recommend reviewing his Figure 1 to see the varying percentages of students who did not identify as either male or female between 2016 and 2025 in the FIRE survey. So far, so good.
GENERALIZATION ISSUES
The generalization issues can be framed as questions:
1. Does the FIRE sample represent all young Americans?
2. Are the any other data that can confirm or disconfirm the FIRE data?
3. Do the data represent a trend?
4. To what extent does identification on a survey represent “transgenderism?”
5. Do the data really justify the label, “social contagion?”
POSSIBLE ANSWERS
1. The FIRE sample does not represent all young Americans, but it does represent a substantial portion of bright young Americans attending close to 250 highly respected US universities.
2. Yes. There are other data. Kauffman did include other studies in his analyses. The FIRE data fall between two other data sources.
Jean Twenge provided additional support for lower percentages of youth identifying as either male or female. Her findings come from the Household Pulse Survey (2024) and the Cooperative Election Study (CES, 2021-2024).
3. There might be a trend. Surveying different people each year can indicate a trend within the population surveyed at that time, but it does not provide information about individuals who previously identified as something other than male or female. To truly determine that kind of trend, you need to follow the same individuals over multiple years.
The size of the difference in identification rates is certainly noteworthy, but focusing on terms like “rapid decline” is less meaningful. More informative would be evidence of a stable rate—perhaps around 1.5 to 2%—of students who do not identify as male or female.
Additionally, how should we interpret transgender individuals who have transitioned and now fully identify as a man or a woman on surveys? Still, I agree that the data indicate a significant drop in young people identifying as transgender or nonbinary.
4. What is “transgenderism?” The term “transgenderism” typically refers to an ideology or belief system, and its usage often carries a disparaging tone—implying, for example, “You aren’t really transgender, are you?” or even more dismissive sentiments. Using this language risks insulting young people who are, or have been, questioning their sexuality or gender identity. It’s important to recognize that thoughtful young people are capable of exploring and understanding this aspect of themselves without facing unnecessary judgment or demeaning labels.
5. Is the term “social contagion” justified? This question is complex. Answering “yes” might suggest that young people who identify as other than male or female are simply following a popular trend—one connected to broader movements for free expression, including sexuality and gender identity.
On the other hand, answering “no” risks overlooking the genuine experiences of individuals whose birth sex does not align with their sense of gender identity. In this way, a legitimate psychological term can be misused, turning it into an insult against those who do not identify strictly as man or woman, girl or boy.
Conclusion
The FIRE survey data, as interpreted by Eric Kaufmann, undeniably point to a measurable decline in students identifying outside the male/female binary. Yet the meaning of that decline remains contested. The temptation to frame complex identity shifts in terms of “rapid decline” or “social contagion” risks oversimplifying both the data and the lived realities of young people navigating questions of gender.
Rather than weaponizing terminology, scholars and commentators should attend to the nuances: the distinction between ideology and identity, the limitations of cross-sectional surveys, and the ethical responsibility to avoid disparagement. The decline in reported transgender or nonbinary identification may be significant, but its interpretation requires care. Ultimately, the conversation should move beyond labels that stigmatize toward a more thoughtful engagement with how young people understand themselves, and how institutions can respect that process.
Notes
After I wrote my response to Kaufmann’s post, I located Jean Twenge’s 5 November 2025 post on Substack. Her analyses of recent data do indeed support Kaufmann’s analyses in terms of a drop in young Americans identifying as nonbinary. Her analyses included 2024 data from students in grades 8, 10, and 12. She clarified the phrasing of the survey: “What is your sex?” with four options: “male,” “female,” “other,” and “prefer not to answer.”
In Bridging the Chasm, I contrast Christian cultures with scientific understandings of sex and gender identities. Here are three examples of how Christians understand the survey results through doctrinal lenses.
Catholic New Agency: https://ewtn.co.uk/article-study-finds-decline-in-young-americans-identifying-as-transgender-queer/
Evangelical (Decision Magazine): https://billygraham.org/decision-magazine/articles/report-finds-considerable-decline-in-trans-and-queer-identification-in-gen-z
Southern Baptist Al Mohler: https://albertmohler.com/2025/10/15/briefing-10-15-25/
For readers who are unfamiliar with research methods
Although some information about trends can be garnered from a series of cross-sectional studies, longitudinal studies are better because they track the same people over time rather than studying different samples.
Investigators often ask a question in different ways on a survey. This can make a difference in how participants respond. It is also important to consider how a commentator is interpreting the numbers.
Sources
Jean Twenge’s article on Substack 5 November 2025: https://www.generationtechblog.com/p/identifying-as-nonbinary-is-in-free
20 October article:
Eric Kaufmann’s article in Skeptic 7 November 2025: https://www.skeptic.com/article/transgenderism-is-in-rapid-decline-among-young-americans/
FIRE report: https://www.thefire.org/research-learn/2025-college-free-speech-rankings